Was Wesley’s $2.2M Hand a Masterclass in GTO or a Total Disaster?
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A jaw-dropping $2.2 million five-bet pot played out on Hustler Casino Live in 2024, featuring an unexpected clash between Wesley and LSG Hank.
In one of the biggest hands in the show’s history, Wesley found himself all-in holding A?7? against Hank’s Q?Q?. Was this an overzealous bluff preflop, or did Wesley tap into high-level Game Theory Optimal (GTO) strategy?
Thankfully, the experts at GTO Wizard have the answer. Let’s break down the hand and see if both players played optimally—or if someone made a costly mistake.
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Preflop: Wesley Fires Back with a Light Five-Bet
Wesley three-bet his A?7? to $15,000 over LSG Hank’s $3,000 open with Q?Q?. Hank responded with a four-bet to $50,000, and Wesley decided to fire back with a five-bet raise to $130,000, which Hank called.
Interestingly, GTO Wizard suggests that at 1,100 big blind stack depths, suited Aces like A?7? frequently appear as five-bet bluffs. The deeper the stacks, the more important it becomes to block an Ace, as the opponent’s continuing range is more weighted toward strong Ace-high hands.
Another key factor is postflop playability. When playing this deep, making the nuts becomes crucial, and suited Aces have that potential. Wesley’s five-bet serves two purposes:
- It pressures Hank into folding hands like AxQx and AxKx that dominate him.
- If called, he still has equity against KxKx and QxQx.
How Should Hank Defend?
Hank should either call or fold in this situation, avoiding a six-bet. Wesley’s range is already highly polarized, representing either pocket Aces or bluffs. Because of this, hands like KxKx and QxQx are not strong enough to six-bet for value.
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Flop: Wesley C-Bets Small, Hank Calls
The flop fell 10?7?6?. Wesley continued with an $80,000 bet into a $266,000 pot, and Hank called with his Q?Q?.
According to GTO Wizard, Wesley should bet his entire range for a small size (about one-third of the pot). Why? His range contains significantly more hands that can comfortably stack off (namely, AxAx).
Hank’s Dilemma With Queens
Queens without a backdoor flush draw should mostly fold at equilibrium, as Wesley’s range is so strong that he will keep barreling frequently on later streets. Instead, Hank could consider raising the flop as a bluff, potentially forcing Wesley off hands like KxKx or QxQx while also getting called by worse occasionally.
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Turn: The Board Pairs, Wesley Increases the Pressure
The turn brought the 7?, pairing the board and giving Wesley trip sevens. Wesley fired another bet of $325,000 into a $427,000 pot, and Hank, after tanking, called.
While Wesley’s bet was logical with trips, the solver suggests a slightly smaller sizing. Instead of a 75% pot bet, a geometric bet size would have been preferred.
Hank’s call was close. Even GTO strategy folds QxQx half the time here due to the sheer strength of Wesley’s betting range. More appealing hands to continue with include A?K? or a hand like 10x, which has more outs to improve.
What Is Geometric Betting?
A geometric bet size maintains the same fraction of the pot across multiple streets. In this case, betting 64% of the pot on both turn and river would have been ideal. This approach ensures:
- Maximum theoretical pressure on Hank.
- The most efficient way to get stacks in by the river.
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River: Wesley Jams
The river was the 5?, completing a potential flush. Wesley quickly moved all-in for $584,000 into a $1.1 million pot. Hank tanked for five minutes before making the call, only to see the bad news.
Hank’s Q?Q? was in a classic indifference spot. When a call is neither losing nor making money, it means that the opponent’s betting range is perfectly balanced between value hands and bluffs. Since Wesley’s jam gave Hank pot odds of roughly 3-to-1, Hank needed to win about 25% of the time for a profitable call.
If Wesley bluffs more than 25% of the time, Hank should always call with his bluff-catchers. Conversely, if Hank folds too often, Wesley can start bluffing even more profitably. This delicate balance is the essence of GTO play.
If you want to read more about these concepts, please visit the GTO Wizard blog article: MDF & Alpha.
Conclusion: A Surprisingly GTO Hand
Wesley’s aggressive five-bet with A?7? turned out to be the correct GTO play, applying maximum pressure preflop. His turn bet size could have been slightly smaller, but overall, he executed the hand well. Hank also made a sound river call given his pot odds, even though it didn’t work out this time.
A fascinating hand—unexpectedly, both players played it quite close to GTO!
